This is the first of what will be many posts on basic information gathering. Gathering information is the foundation of everything that a good sell-side analyst does. We’ll cover lots of pieces but without continual, effective information gathering there is no “flow” which is an important part of being good on the sell-side.
The Internet and social networks have added whole new elements to the information gathering landscape but we are going to start first with the most basic which is talking to managements.
A bit of history is in order since the SEC passed a rule governing disclosure by public company management teams that has had a dramatic impact on the interaction between financial analysts and management teams.
Before “Regulation Full Disclosure” or “Reg FD” or simply “FD” for short, analysts got information from senior managements that was material to the companies they were following but not available to the general public. This was certainly unfair and wrong. The spirit behind Regulation FD is to make sure that all material non-public information is made available to everyone at the same time. For many types of disclosures, like a change in forward guidance or a major manufacturing problem this makes perfect sense. However FD has not been so simple.
Because it’s hard to define exactly what “material” means in an informational context most senior managers have taken the rule to mean something closer to “don’t divulge any information of any sort to financial analysts.” Some years ago interactions with senior managements of public companies became so inane and absurd that they ceased to be of any value whatsoever.
The most important implication is that analysts must cultivate other sources of information for the companies they follow and rely much less on company management teams. We’ll go into many levels of description on these but before going there let’s stay on discussions with management teams.
Although they have become mostly useless in gathering information about their own companies, senior managements, even of public companies, can be very helpful in gathering information on companies in adjacent markets.
The first and most obvious thing many start with is asking about competition. Although heavily biased any specific information can be helpful and is often volunteered with alacrity. They key is getting specifics rather than “their product is not competitive.” Finding out about a design loss, senior management change, or product delays might be valuable if confirmed.
More useful in our view are the insights offered in customers, suppliers and budgets. Most CEO’s have free exchanges of information with these companies and while they can be expected to protect confidential information, they end up with a great deal of non-public information which can certainly be useful and even potentially material to an analysis.
The better information is likely to come after some warmup period of information gathering on top customers and suppliers. In that discussion it becomes easier to ask questions about that customer in terms of how their business is changing, the same is true in terms of suppliers by asking about changes in planned spending, changing lead times or other aspects of supplier performance.
Although these pieces of information are likely to be anecdotal they can be quite potent in driving interest and areas for further research. It’s not uncommon to hear from a company that they are “not buying any more servers from IBM but rather shifting to HP due to a more integrated management approach” or “seeing a major customer who is a software OEM losing lots of market share to a low-end offering from Google.“
Here are the key points:
1. Senior management of public companies have a hard time sharing any information about their companies or business with financial analysts thanks in part to fear from Reg FD.
2. The only practical way to gather information on companies is from external sources or using unique paths (like customers) to get anything directly.
3. Conversations with managements can be very productive in terms of gathering information about the markets, competition, and adjacent companies that are customers or suppliers.
Steve Waite
Your key points are right on the money. When FD was passed, I wrote an article for investors titled: “FD: Forever Dumb.” I think the whole concept of inside information needs rethinking. The truth is no matter how many regulations the government passes to impede the flow of information in the market, non-public information will find its way into stock prices.